000 03469nam a2200409 4500
003 DOH
005 20201029125852.0
008 201029b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
245 0 0 _aReconstruction of 60 years of chikungunya epidemiology in the Philippines demonstrates episodic and focal transmission /
_cHenrik Salje [and seventeen others]
520 3 _aProper understanding of the long-term epidemiology of chikungunya has been hampered by poor surveillance. Outbreak years are unpredictable and cases often misdiagnosed. Here we analyzed age-specific data from 2 serological studies (from 1973 and 2012) in Cebu, Philippines, to reconstruct both the annual probability of infection and population-level immunity over a 60-year period (1952-2012). We also explored whether seroconversions during 2012-2013 were spatially clustered. Our models identified 4 discrete outbreaks separated by an average delay of 17 years. On average, 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16%-37%) of the susceptible population was infected per outbreak, with >50% of the entire population remaining susceptible at any point. Participants who seroconverted during 2012-2013 were clustered at distances of <230 m, suggesting focal transmission. Large-scale outbreaks of chikungunya did not result in sustained multiyear transmission. Nevertheless, we estimate that >350 000 infections were missed by surveillance systems. Serological studies could supplement surveillance to provide important insights on pathogen circulation.
580 _aIn: The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2016 Vol. 213 (4) page 604-10.
650 0 2 _aChikungunya Fever
_xepidemiology
650 0 2 _aChikungunya Fever
_xhistory
650 0 2 _aChikungunya Fever
_xtransmission
650 0 2 _aDisease Transmission, Infectious
653 _aSerological Study
700 1 _aSalje, Henrik
700 1 _aCauchemez, Simon
700 1 _aAlera, Maria Theresa
700 1 _aRodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
700 1 _aThaisomboonsuk, Butsaya
700 1 _aSrikiatkhachorn, Anon
700 1 _aLago, Catherine B.
700 1 _aVilla, Daisy
700 1 _aKlungthong, Chonticha
700 1 _aTac-An, Ilya A.
700 1 _aFernandez, Stefan
700 1 _aVelasco, John Mark
700 1 _aRoque, Vito G., Jr
700 1 _aNisalak, Ananda
700 1 _aMacareo, Louis R.
700 1 _aLevy, Jens W.
700 1 _aCummings, Derek
700 1 _aYoon, In-Kyu
856 _uhttps://watermark.silverchair.com/jiv470.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAqAwggKcBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKNMIICiQIBADCCAoIGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMCFG-5xE2JVU14ufpAgEQgIICU2q0rPx0uLiM0Fs_yjAp7PAEuNAnQlOYVR9COgYE3fB6cYFNCfhOd53_JLIb-CcBZdVdkX4Fj-o1lC4IF6zNQQj9RJUwAz21SZ2RRH0LlF9TYXjRqWFi4JOBL6vAg72eTF7iielMENTImwR1Q6mOUZhhNIaauXJjs44Py4jkuT4hMfYRHQFTdsLcJHykwtXLi3mi1WHBDMP9ZusOpdJXrzYonJiwkPOlElkboc1pKNc4HPILrp6Uu5RBOSz68TiPd4ypvGw5TNVzd7wPSwpB0iHtQoelfNrj4ceH9ulh_AwgtFUi3oiNaCHQKc5dSRiyHRWeEZUpcxIZ8L473aEzbcLSfprc3EpsoSXOOOnzip-TcSQ4QGqCTd3LmMlaPBozXKl9VC3spVi8_yhPm1pn-liSkVfzLL7ox6X_JiXWpzAFAyAFQRVyiuU129S0-V15QeOEwxZ9cptt-safZaWlBIHaTmuo6BSPB6dD72V0JYwB9FCeaXFLaM-I3XPSB5_MI7U6T-oGxb1w4wEDhLvrYF0YttMgZM0dUsmTGK3FFuCMrA8rgFlHUPpjvsmnwuRxNwbTjHhP-53dKOPN5wbE44ylHRBkeN7LIOmI1M8QKyD797sw-EuHbKJeTeZfshswbXsVzJMXP_jGTYMUblcZuLmjMENybImkHR8lGFJpQa-LUL07S4EY_dQTXueXXvjYV-vaShh3l0qdu32AaIQZ--xieSXYHEVxx_ktQ1e8xX1cQcgAEtUa9vwAMiKB77F82k7T-OwphBsX2pHC1mez-KYB4SY
942 _cJA
999 _c1631
_d1631