000			01742nam a22002417a 4500
003			DOH
005			20201120140533.0
008			201120b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
245	0	4	_aThe Population AttributableFraction (PAF) of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies / _cEllen Brooks-Pollock [and five others]
520			_aBackground Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. Methods We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the Basic Reproduction Number when groups are prevented. Findings We estimate that PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 2.2% (95%CI 1.1%, 3.6%); the PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 6.4% (5.0%, 8.0%); the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 11.3% (9.9%, 13.0%) Interpretation Large groups of individuals have a small epidemiological impact; small and medium sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic.
580			_aIn: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039537
650		2	_aCoronavirus
653			_aPopulation Attributable Fraction
653			_aCOVID-19 Mitigation
700	1		_aBrooks-Pollock, Ellen
700	1		_aRead, Jonathan M
700	1		_aHouse, Thomas
700	1		_aMedley, Graham F
700	1		_aKeeling, Matt J
700	1		_aDanon, ProfileLeon
856			_uhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039537v1.full.pdf
942			_cCV
999			_c1781 _d1781