000			02110nam a22003137a 4500
001			D0001C000066
003			DOH
005			20201123132702.0
008			201123b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
245	0	0	_aSubstantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) / _cRuiyun Li [and six others]
520	3		_aEstimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82-90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46-62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
580			_aIn: Science. 2020 vol.368 (6490) page: 489–493. Published online 2020 Mar 16. doi: 10.1126/science.abb3221
650		2	_aBayes Theorem
650		2	_aBetacoronavirus
650		2	_aCoronavirus Infections _xdiagnosis
650		2	_aCoronavirus Infections _xtransmission
650		2	_aEpidemiological Monitoring
650		2	_aTravel
653			_aCOVID-19
700	1		_aLi, Ruiyun
700	1		_aPei, Sen
700	1		_aChen, Bin
700	1		_aSong, Yimeng
700	1		_aZhang, Tao
700	1		_aYang, Wan
700	1		_aShaman, Jeffrey
856			_uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164387/
942			_cCV
999			_c1803 _d1803